- Indianapolis (2-14) Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Has there ever been a more predictable first round pick? People have had Luck penciled in as the number one selection in the 2012 draft since he announced his return to the Cardinal last season. The real question is, how lucky are the Indianapolis Colts? Some franchises wait for over a decade for a franchise quarterback, they will replace theirs before he even leaves the game. Just not fair really.
- Washington (5-11) via St. Louis (2-14) Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
As of right now this pick belongs to the St. Louis Rams. This is the only hypothetical trade that will be included in this mock draft for the simple reason that this trade is all but guaranteed. If there’s one thing we know about Redskins owner Daniel Snyder it is that he doesn’t mind taking out a mortgage to get the guy he wants. Griffin’s combine numbers will only make his stock soar and while the Redskins have the number six pick, they won’t be willing to wait around to see if he falls. If Griffin can make a Cam Newtonesque impact out the gate is yet to be seen but Washington will be willing to take the gamble.
- Minnesota (3-13) Matt Kalil, OT, USC
Ever go to a restaurant that you are completely unfamiliar with but you are completely starving? There’s all this stuff on the menu and it looks good but you just can’t risk ordering anything you’ve never had before. What do you do? You settle for the old standby. The cheeseburger.
Nobody messes up a cheeseburger and while it may not be phenomenal, it gets the job done. That’s what tackles have become for teams selecting in the top ten. The Vikings could go many directions with this pick, and at number three there are plenty of impact players to be had at this spot but they’ll settle for the old standby, a tackle. If a franchise left tackle tanks they at least make for decent starters at right tackle and the team gets a quality starter. Kalil may not be all that great and he definitely doesn’t compare to other tackles that have been taken this high (although he’s probably better than Robert Gallery). Kalil will make a quality starter in the NFL and that’s good enough to keep the Vikings regime employed and justify this pick.
- Cleveland (4-12) Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
This is where things start to get interesting. This pick may just hinge on how fast wide receiver Justin Blackmon runs the 40 yard dash and how well he does in the combine in general. Should Blackmon’s stock say as solid as it right now this could very easily be the pick or the team could go with cornerback Morris Claiborne to further solidify a promising defense and form a formidable duo with you cornerback Joe Haden.
In the end the Browns will look to find something they have not had since their comeback in 1999: a true featured back. Peyton Hillis may be brought back for depth and would make a great third down back but he isn’t the long term answer in Cleveland. Richardson would bring life to an otherwise dead offense and relieve some pressure from Colt McCoy.
- Tampa Bay (4-12) Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Replacing Ronde Barber with Morris Claiborne is akin to replacing Peyton Manning with Andrew Luck. A longtime staple of the Buccaneer defense, Barber’s leadership will not be easy to replace. His play however, could be matched very early in Claiborne’s career and he will make an impact right away.
- St. Louis (2-14) Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Was 2011 more rough to anyone than Sam Bradford? He went from unquestioned quarterback of the future to competing with AJ Feeley for the title of best quarterback on the roster. Bradford gave the term “sophomore slump” a whole new meaning and if Matt Barkley had decided to leave then the Rams may have thought about dealing Bradford and going after a quarterback in the draft. However, the Rams should look to surround Bradford with more weapons going forward and Blackmon would be a great complement to new addition Brandon Lloyd. If Bradford can’t find success with those two catching the football then something is drastically wrong and the search for a quarterback will be on.
- Jacksonville (5-11) Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Is it too early to give up on Blaine Gabbert already? Probably so, and with Ryan Tannehill the best available quarterback left it probably won’t cross the team’s mind to take a flier on a quarterback. At this point the Jaguars would be best served to take the best available player. That would be Quinton Coples. Coples is a freak athlete and will certainly put pressure on quarterbacks. Elite pass-rushers are always at a premium in the NFL and while the Jaguars have used high picks on defensive linemen before the Giants have shown that you can never have too many.
- Miami (6-10) Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
Miami needs a right tackle desperately. However, not too many right tackles go in the top ten so it is hard to imagine them taking one simply because of the financial factors but a trade down so they can select one later in the first round is a very real possibility. If they keep the pick it could be Ingram. A defensive end at South Carolina Ingram, has the prototypical build to move to outside linebacker in the 3-4 and current starter Jason Taylor isn’t getting any younger.
- Carolina (6-10) Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
While Cam Newton garnered plenty of national attention with his explosive play and the Panthers were able to put up good numbers on offense, they had one of the worst defenses in the league. That is why they must use this pick on a defensive player. Many people have the Panthers taking an offensive tackle here but Cam Newton has enough scrambling ability to wait one more year for an elite tackle. Kirkpatrick has great size and plays with physicality and attitude. He would be a cornerstone for this defense for years to come and could develop into an elite cover corner.
- Buffalo (6-10) Jonathon Martin, OT, Stanford
The Bills most glaring need is definitely an edge rusher but if Ingraham is gone at this point, Courtney Upshaw would be a reach so the Bills could and should go offensive line. Martin is a solid prospect and did a great job of keeping Andrew Luck’s blindside clear. With all of the money invested into quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s new deal Martin would be a great insurance plan.
- Kansas City (7-9) Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
After a rough start to the season mostly due to injury, Romeo Crennel was able to step in and lead the Chiefs to a respectable finish so expectations will be high for this team to contend next year. As with many teams in this year’s draft their needs don’t really match what spot they will be drafting in but adding a blue-chip offensive lineman is never a bad idea. Riley Reiff is a physical mauler in the running game and would make a nice right tackle that could eventually develop into a left tackle if need be.
- Seattle (7-9) Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
STRETCH ALERT. Remember last year when everyone said that Jake Locker was clearly an early second round pick? Then remember when Tennessee inexplicably took him with the eighth pick? Don’t be fooled again, some team will probably fall in love with Tannehill’s intriguing size and arm strength and take him way too early. That team is most likely Seattle. With Tavaris Jackson clearly not the answer and Charlie Whitehurst not looking too good either the Seahawks must muster up a semblance of a passing game if they don’t want Marshawn Lynch to implode next year.
- Arizona (8-8) Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Larry Fitzgerald WAS Arizona’s offense last year. Fitzgerald is among the best in the game, but even he needs other threats to be present to succeed. Arizona could definitely use a playmaking wide receiver to alleviate the pressure on Skelton and Fitzgerald and once again make the Cardinals have a feared passing game like they did when they had Anquan Boldin across from Larry Fitzgerald.
The question becomes which wide receiver they will take. After Blackmon the picture becomes very muddled. Malcolm Floyd possesses great size and ability to win jump balls, Kendall Wright is a versatile, electrifying type that should continue to see his stock rise and Alshon Jeffrey continues to lurk despite seeing his stock drop recently. At this point Wright’s stock is almost even with Floyd’s and he would be a much better complement to Fitzgerald.
- Dallas (8-8) David DeCastro, G, Stanford
Where to begin with Dallas? They could just take anyone from Harvard at this spot and have them manage the timeouts for Jason Garrett. Could have given them two more wins this year… What more do you want from a rookie? A more practical pick would be David DeCastro out of Stanford. The Cowboys could use a more physical offensive line to block for breakout runningback DeMarco Murray and DeCastro would be a great fit.
- Philadelphia (8-8) Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
This could be the best marriage in terms of need-player-pick fit. Kuechly is deserving of the 15th pick and is exactly what the Eagles need. After the “dream team” was exposed for lack of good linebackers time and time again, Kuechly could step in right away and be a force in the middle of their defense. Keuchly is a solid tackler who plays hard but isn’t the most flashy of linebackers it will be interesting to see if the combine hurts his stock at all.
- New York Jets (8-8) Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
A tackle would sure be nice here as the Jets offensive line definitely took a step back in 2011 as the team was unable to “ground and pound” like Rex Ryan wanted to do. However with Reiff and Martin off the board in this scenario the Jets will look to improve another area of need on offense- wide receiver.
Plaxico Burress was decent at times as the team’s primary redzone target but its clear his time is limited. It also appears that Santonio Holmes may be on his way out and wasn’t consistent when he was on the field in 2011. With the Jets losing hope in Mark Sanchez Malcolm Floyd could be just the right receiver to step in and make an immediate impact right away. Adding Floyd would also make the Jets a more attractive option for Peyton Manning should he choose to play elsewhere in the face of Andrew Luck’s acquisition.
- Cincinnati - from Oakland (8-8) Mark Barron, S, Alabama
Cincinnati basically stole this pick from Oakland in exchange for the quarterback formerly known as Carson Palmer so its only right that they slightly reach for a player. Barron would be filling in a huge need for the Bengals so this isn’t a horrible pick and some big boards have Barron ranked this high. The Bengals have youth all over the field and could continue building a bright future by adding a playmaker like Barron to their secondary.
- San Diego (8-8) Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
This could be the steal of the draft. Upshaw put his talents on display for the entire country to see in the national championship game so if Upshaw slides all the way back to San Diego they will be more than happy to scoop him up. Upshaw would provide a boost to the Charger pass rush that has made San Diego’s defense great but has been missing since the departure of Shawne Merriman.
- Chicago (8-8) Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina
Chicago’s most glaring need (as always it seems) is wide receiver. The Bears could probably trade out of this pick and still land Jeffrey so that remains a possibility but the Bears were looking solid until Matt Forte and Jay Cutler’s injuries became too much. Adding another playmaker to the roster would help Forte and Cutler as they try to stay healthy next year. Jeffrey’s stock has dropped recently as questions about his speed have creeped up so the combine will be huge for him but Jeffrey’s size and hands alone make him a great red zone target and separates him from the receivers already on the Bears roster.
- Tennessee (9-7) Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
The Titans need help on the interior of their offensive line in the worst way, their running game was awful at times last year and it wasn’t all Chris Johnson’s fault. However, if Brockers is still available at this point the Titans would have to take him. He doesn’t necessarily fit a need, the Titans defensive tackle position could be worse, but Brockers could be the best 4-3 defensive tackle in the draft and it is unlikely he makes it to the 20th pick. He would be the Titans most dominating defensive tackle since splitting ways with Albert Haynesworth.
- Cincinnati (9-7) Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Seriously, the Raiders should be banned from making trades. As if Cincinnati needed more young talent they will have two selections in the first round. Expect the Bengals to go secondary twice as it truly is their largest area of need. By far. By pairing up cornerback Alfonzo Dennard with safety Mark Barron, the Bengals would have the beginnings of a solid secondary when Leon Hall returns from injury in 2013.
- Cleveland - from Atlanta* (10-6) Cordy Glenn, OG/OT, Georgia
Cleveland once again has many holes to fill and a couple different ways they could go with this pick. Vontaze Burfict could be a good gamble at this spot if the team doesn’t feel that D’Qwell Jackson will return but his attitude concerns will probably sink his stock. If Andre Branch is still available at this point he would be hard to pass up as a complement to Jabaal Sheard, however his build and skillset are more suited for the 3-4. This leaves Cordy Glenn as the best option. Glenn is a massive lineman with great run blocking skills. It is undetermined whether he will play tackle or guard at the NFL level but honestly for the Browns it wouldn’t matter. Both right tackle and guard are in need of an upgrade so Glenn could fill in at either spot.
- Detroit (10-6) Alan Branch, DE, Clemson
This pick may hinge on whether they bring back defensive end Cliff Avril who will have a mighty high price tag coming off of an eleven sack season. If they chose to let him walk the Lions could spend yet another pick on the defensive line. While the Lions running game is in need of help, the Lions have never been known to draft based on need and Branch could be the best player left on the board at this point. Branch is purely a speed rusher but with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh already in place he should have plenty of open lanes to the quarterback.
- Pittsburgh (12-4) Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State
Burfict could be the Dez Bryant of this draft. Seen as a top-ten talent, Burfict’s inability to control his emotions has seen his stock spiral downward. The interviewing process will be very important for Burfict to show that he can get his issues under control and be a productive player at the NFL level. Pittsburgh is a perfect fit for Burfict, who seems to attract extremely gifted linebackers with attitude problems (looking at you James Harrison).
- Denver (8-8) Devon Still, DT, Penn State
Lost in the shuffle of Tebowmania was just how good Denver’s defense was last year. Von Miller was among the most impactful rookies in the league last year. If Denver is going to win with Tebow long term it will take a true commitment to defense. The addition of Still who provides great athleticism at the defensive tackle position gives this front seven yet another young talent to be excited about.
- Houston (10-6) Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
The Stanford Cardinal could have a four first round draft picks come April. That’s gotta be a record for them. Houston has done a great job in the draft of putting together a front seven that is among the best in the NFL. This year they should look to give the offense some more fire power. The tight end is constantly evolving in the NFL and becoming a bigger part of NFL offenses. With Owen Daniels definitely regressing in 2011 Fleener would provide a great target for Matt Schaub to have when he comes back and would leave Andre Johnson to see more single coverage.
- New England - from New Orleans* (13-3) Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
New England got this pick from New Orleans in the trade that got the Saints Mark Ingram. The chances of New England keeping this pick are small as the Patriots tend to ship off picks that don’t suit exactly what they need. The Patriots could use help in the secondary but this is an awkward spot for the remaining talent in the secondary to go so they will go best available if they are in this situation. That would be Zach Brown (not Zac Brown), who may see his stock shoot upward in the combine.
- Green Bay (15-1) Janoris Jenkins, CB, South Alabama
What does the team that has everything draft? The Packers don’t show too many weaknesses so this is a great spot to take a gamble. Janoris Jenkins would be just that. Jenkins, a former Florida Gator, has loads of upside but character issues forced his transfer to South Alabama and have kept his stock lower than it could have been. Charles Woodson is elite but is getting long in the tooth. The Packers would be a nice spot for Jenkins to land because they have established leaders to show Jenkins the way and he isn’t needed to have an impact right away.
- Baltimore (12-4) Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
As everyone knows, the Ravens love to load up on talent in the front seven of the defense. This draft should be no different. Hightower would be the perfect pick for the Ravens as it would provide them with an heir apparent to Ray Lewis, who despite evidence to the contrary, won’t play forever. Hightower was a dominating force for Alabama’s defense and could see his stock rise if he is impressive at the combine.
- San Francisco (13-3) Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
The Niners are easily the NFL’s most improved team this year and they were able to land one of the more underrated rookies with last year’s first round pick, Aldon Smith. Smith quietly racked up 14 sacks in his rookie campaign and became an integral part of a dominating defense. This year the Niners would love to add a playmaking wide receiver to the mix after a disappointing season from free agent addition, Braylon Edwards. However, at this point there aren’t any receivers left on the board that fit this spot so San Fransisco could look to solidify the interior with a solid blocker that could play guard or center.
- New York Giants (9-7) David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
Somehow the Giants went from 9-7 to the super bowl so obviously, they are a pretty well put together team. However, despite having a great offense the runningback situation remains largely unresolved. While things are rolling fairly smoothly now Brandon Jacobs hasn’t always been the happiest guy so it wouldn’t be too surprising if they looked for another solid running back to back up Ahmad Bradshaw and eventually take the lead role. Wilson is an explosive runner with great open field speed yet enough bulk to develop into a featured back. Wilson would improve the Giants running game and offer their offense more balance.
- New England (13-3) Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
As mentioned earlier, one never knows if New England will actually use their pick or trade it away to stockpile more future picks (Bill Bellicheck needs his own episode of hoarders). In this scenario they would probably keep it as Thompson is well worth a late first round pick and fills a need for the Patriots. Aside from Vince Wilfork, the Patriots don’t have much in the way of defensive tackles and the Albert Haynesworth experiment went horribly wrong. Thompson would infuse more young talent into the position and give the Patriots an even better pass rush.
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